Yunkurin hauhawar farashin albarkatun batir tun farkon shekarar 2021 yana haifar da hasashe kan ko dai bukatar lalacewa ko kuma jinkiri, kuma ya haifar da imani cewa kamfanonin kera motoci na iya canza zabin motocinsu na lantarki.

Fakitin mafi ƙasƙanci ya kasance al'adar lithium-iron-phosphate, koLFP.Tesla ya kasance yana amfani da LFP don samfuran shigar da China ke yi tun 2021. Sauran masu kera motoci irin su Volkswagen da Rivian suma sun sanar da cewa za su yi amfani da LFP a cikin mafi arha samfuransa.

Nickel-cobalt-manganese, ko NCM, baturi wani zaɓi ne.Suna buƙatar adadin lithium makamancin hakaLFP, amma ya hada da cobalt, wanda yake da tsada kuma tsarin samar da shi yana da rikici.

Farashin ƙarfe na Cobalt ya haura 70% a cikin shekara.Nickel ya ga tashin hankali na baya-bayan nan bayan ɗan gajeren matsi akan LME.Farashin nickel na wata uku yana ciniki akan kewayon cikin kwana na $27,920-$28,580/mt akan Mayu 10.

A halin yanzu, farashin lithium ya haura sama da 700% tun farkon 2021, wanda ya haifar da babban tsalle a farashin fakitin baturi.
A cewar S&P Global Intelligence Intelligence, farashin karfen batir na kasar Sin a watan Maris ya karu da kashi 580.7 bisa dari na batirin LFP akan dala daya kan kilogiram daya, wanda ya kai kusan $36/kwh.Batura NCM sun haura 152.6% akan lokaci guda zuwa $73-78/kwh a watan Fabrairu

"Hanyanlithiuman yi tsada a cikin watanni 12 da suka gabata.Karamin ragi ne fiye da yadda kuke tsammani [a kan NCM] kuma da zarar kun jefa cikin abubuwan aiki to yanke shawara ce mafi wahala da ta kasance.Kuna iya ba da wasu ayyuka don farashi, amma ba shi da arha sosai a kwanakin nan.” wani mai sayar da cobalt hydroxide ya ce.

"Akwai damuwa, hakika, saboda farashin LFP yana yin haɗari da yawa ga ɓangaren da yake niyya, wanda batir mai rahusa ne," in ji wata majiya mai samar da lithium.

“Babu wasu madaidaitan hanyoyin da za su iya amfani da batir masu ƙarfin nickel (waɗanda ke ɗauke da sassa 8 nickel ko fiye) a cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci zuwa matsakaici.Komawa ƙananan batir NMC na ƙananan nickel ya sake haifar da damuwa game da amfani da cobalt, yayin da batir LFP ba za su iya yin daidai da aikin kewayon ba kuma suna da ingantattun halaye masu ƙarancin zafi idan aka kwatanta da batura masu tsananin nickel, "Alice Yu, babban manazarci, S&P Global Market Intelligence. .

Yayin da mafificin sinadarai a kasar Sin shine baturin LFP, ana kyautata zaton cewa NCM za ta taka rawa sosai a kasuwannin EU - inda masu sayen kayayyaki suka fi son motocin da ke dauke da su a fadin kasar ko nahiya kan mafi karancin kudade.

“Lokacin da muke kallon kera shuke-shuken baturi, muna buƙatar bincika sassauci.A yanzu akwai daidaiton farashi tsakanin LFP da NCM.Idan LFP ya sake zama mai rahusa kuma za mu iya ƙila ba da fifikon samarwa, amma a yanzu ya kamata mu samar da NCM saboda samfuri ne mai ƙima."in ji wani mota OEM.

OEM mota ta biyu ta sake maimaita wannan sharhin, "Batura LFP za su kasance a nan don motocin matakin shiga, amma ba za a karbe su don manyan motoci ba".

Halin iyakancewa

Samar da Lithium ya kasance babban damuwa ga kasuwar EV da wani abu da zai iya dakatar da kowane kamfani cikin sauƙi sauyawa zuwa LFP.

Bincike daga S&P Global Commodity Insights ya nuna cewa idan duk ma'adinan lithium a cikin bututun ya zo kan layi a cikin lokacin da aka tsara, tare da ƙayyadaddun ƙayyadaddun kayan aikin baturi, har yanzu za a sami raguwar 220,000 mt nan da 2030, ana tsammanin buƙatar ta kai miliyan 2 mt a wurin. karshen shekaru goma.

Yawancin masu kera lithium na yammacin duniya suna da mafi girman kaso na kayan aikin su da aka yi rajista a ƙarƙashin kwangiloli na dogon lokaci, kuma masu canjin Sinawa sun shagaltu da buƙatun kwangila na tabo da na dogon lokaci.

"Akwai buƙatun [tabo] da yawa, amma ba mu da wani abu a halin yanzu," in ji majiyar kera lithium."Muna da kundin ƙididdiga kawai lokacin da abokin ciniki ya sami matsala, ko kuma ya soke jigilar kaya saboda wasu dalilai, in ba haka ba duk an yi ajiyar," in ji shi.

Damuwar damuwa game da lithium, da sauran karafa na baturi, zama ƙayyadaddun abin da zai iya fitar da tallafin EV ya haifar da masu kera motoci don ƙara shiga cikin ɓangaren masana'antar.

General Motors za su saka hannun jari a cikin haɓaka aikin Lithium na Jahannama Mai Kula da Ma'auni a California.Stellantis, Volkswagen da Renault sun yi haɗin gwiwa tare da Vulcan Resources don amintar da kayan aikin sifili na Carbon a Jamus.

Sodium-ion madadin

Ganin ƙarancin wadatar lithium, cobalt da nickel da ake tsammanin, masana'antar batir tana binciken wasu hanyoyi.Ana ɗaukar batirin sodium-ion a matsayin ɗayan mafi kyawun zaɓuɓɓuka.

Sodium-ion yawanci zai yi amfani da carbon a cikin anode da kayan daga nau'in da aka sani da Prussian Blue a cikin cathode.Akwai "jerin karafa da za a iya amfani da su a kan Prussian Blue, kuma zai bambanta dangane da kamfanin," a cewar Venkat Srinivasan, darektan Cibiyar Haɗin gwiwar Argonne na Cibiyar Nazarin Makamashi ta Amurka (ACCESS).

Mafi girman fa'ida ga sodium-ion shine ƙananan farashin samarwa, in ji majiyoyi.Saboda yawan sodium a duniya, waɗannan fakitin baturi na iya kashe kusan 3% -50% ƙasa da batirin lithium-ion.Yawan makamashi yana kwatankwacin LFP.

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), daya daga cikin manyan kamfanonin kera batir a kasar Sin, ta bayyana a shekarar da ta gabata ƙarni na farko na batirin sodium-ion, tare da maganin fakitin batirin AB, wanda ya nuna ya sami damar haɗa ƙwayoyin sodium-ion da lithium-ion. Kwayoyin cikin fakiti daya.Tsarin masana'antu da kayan aiki na batirin sodium-ion sun dace da baturin lithium-ion na yanzu, in ji CATL.

Amma kafin sodium-ion ya kai ga ma'aunin kasuwanci mai mahimmanci, wasu damuwa suna buƙatar magance su.

Har yanzu akwai wasu gyare-gyaren da za a samu akan electrolyte da bangarorin anode.

Kwatanta da baturi na tushen LFP, sodium-ion ya fi ƙarfi akan fitarwa, amma ya fi rauni akan caji.

Babban abin iyakancewa shine cewa wannan har yanzu wani ɗan lokaci ne daga samuwa a matakin kasuwanci.

Hakazalika, an yi biliyoyin daloli na saka hannun jari a cikin sarkar samar da lithium-ion dangane da sinadarai masu arzikin lithium da nickel.

"Tabbas za mu kalli sodium-ion amma muna bukatar mu fara mai da hankali kan fasahohin da ke can da kuma kawo shuka a kan layi," in ji wani mai kera batir.