Rikicin makamashin da yakin Ukraine ya haifar na iya zama barna a fannin tattalin arziki ga Rasha da Tarayyar Turai wanda a karshe zai iya raguwa a matsayin manyan kasashe a fagen duniya.Ma’anar wannan sauyi—har yanzu ba a fahimce ta ba—shine da alama muna tafiya da sauri zuwa ga duniyar da ke karkashin ikon manyan kasashe biyu: China da Amurka.

Idan muka yi la'akari da lokacin yakin cacar baka na mulkin mallaka na Amurka a matsayin mai dorewa daga 1991 zuwa rikicin kudi na 2008, to za mu iya magance lokacin daga 2008 zuwa Fabrairu na wannan shekara, lokacin da Rasha ta mamaye Ukraine, a matsayin lokaci na ɓatanci-multipolarity. .Kasar Sin na karuwa cikin sauri, amma girman tattalin arzikin EU—da kuma ci gaban da ya samu kafin shekarar 2008—ya ba ta da'awar halal a matsayin daya daga cikin manyan kasashen duniya.Farfadowar tattalin arzikin Rasha tun daga shekara ta 2003 da ci gaba da karfin soji ya sanya ta a taswirar ita ma.Shugabanni daga New Delhi zuwa Berlin zuwa Moscow sun yaba da yawan jama'a a matsayin sabon tsarin harkokin duniya.

Rikicin makamashin da ke gudana tsakanin Rasha da kasashen Yamma yana nufin cewa lokacin da ake amfani da shi a yanzu ya kare.Duk da cewa makaman nukiliyar da Rasha ke yi ba za ta gushe ba, kasar za ta samu kanta a matsayin karamar abokiyar huldar da Sin ke jagoranta.Ƙananan tasirin rikicin makamashi a kan tattalin arzikin Amurka, a halin yanzu, zai zama sanyi mai sanyi ga Washington geopolitically: Ƙwayar Turai za ta lalata ikon Amurka, wanda ya dade yana kirga nahiyar a matsayin aboki.

Makamashi mai arha shine tushen tattalin arzikin zamani.Ko da yake fannin makamashi, a lokutan al'ada, yana da ɗan ƙaramin kaso na jimlar GDP ga mafi yawan ƙasashe masu ci-gaba, yana da babban tasiri kan hauhawar farashi da farashin shigar da kayayyaki ga dukkan sassa saboda yawan amfanin sa.

Farashin wutar lantarki da iskar gas na Turai ya kusan kusan sau 10 a tarihi a cikin shekaru goma da suka wuce 2020. Hauhawar da aka yi a bana kusan gaba dayanta ne saboda yakin da Rasha ta yi a Ukraine, duk da cewa tsananin zafi da fari ne ya ta'azzara a wannan bazarar.Har zuwa 2021, Turai (ciki har da Burtaniya) sun dogara da shigo da Rasha kusan kashi 40 na iskar gas ɗinta da kuma kaso mai yawa na buƙatun mai da kwal.Watanni kafin ta mamaye Ukraine, Rasha ta fara sarrafa kasuwannin makamashi tare da kara farashin iskar gas a cewar hukumar makamashi ta kasa da kasa.

Yawan makamashin Turai yana kashe kusan kashi 2 cikin ɗari na GDP a lokutan al'ada, amma ya haura zuwa kimanin kashi 12 bisa 100 a bayan hauhawar farashin.Babban tsadar wannan girman yana nufin cewa masana'antu da yawa a duk faɗin Turai suna dawo da ayyukansu ko kuma suna rufe gaba ɗaya.Masu kera Aluminum, masu samar da taki, masu gyaran ƙarfe, da masu yin gilashin suna da haɗari musamman ga hauhawar farashin iskar gas.Wannan yana nufin Turai na iya tsammanin koma bayan tattalin arziki mai zurfi a cikin shekaru masu zuwa, kodayake kiyasin tattalin arziki na ainihin yadda zurfin ya bambanta.

Don bayyanawa: Turai ba za ta yi talauci ba.Haka kuma mutanenta ba za su daskare a wannan lokacin sanyi ba.Alamu na farko sun nuna cewa nahiyar na yin kyakkyawan aiki na rage yawan iskar gas da kuma cika tankunan ajiyarta na lokacin hunturu.Jamus da Faransa kowane ɗayan manyan abubuwan amfani da ƙasa sun ƙirƙira ƙasa - akan kuɗi mai yawa - don rage cikas ga masu amfani da makamashi.

A maimakon haka, ainihin hadarin da nahiyar ke fuskanta shi ne asarar gasa ta fuskar tattalin arziki saboda tafiyar hawainiyar ci gaban tattalin arziki.Gas mai arha ya dogara da bangaskiyar ƙarya a cikin amincin Rasha, kuma hakan ya shuɗe har abada.Masana'antar za ta daidaita sannu a hankali, amma canjin zai ɗauki lokaci - kuma zai iya haifar da ɓarnawar tattalin arziki mai raɗaɗi.

Wadannan matsalolin tattalin arziki ba su da wata alaka da tsaftataccen makamashi ko kuma matakin gaggawa na EU kan rugujewar kasuwa sakamakon yakin Ukraine.Maimakon haka, za a iya gano su ga shawarar da Turai ta yanke a baya don haɓaka jaraba ga albarkatun mai na Rasha, musamman iskar gas.Ko da yake abubuwan sabuntawa kamar hasken rana da iska na iya maye gurbin burbushin mai a ƙarshe wajen samar da wutar lantarki mai arha, ba za su iya sauya iskar gas ba don amfanin masana'antu cikin sauƙi-musamman tunda iskar gas mai ruwa (LNG), madadin iskar gas ɗin da ake yi akai-akai, ya fi tsada sosai.Kokarin da wasu ‘yan siyasa ke yi na dora laifin sauyin makamashi mai tsafta a kan guguwar tattalin arzikin da ke ci gaba da yi ya ci tura.

Labari mara kyau ga Turai ya haɗa yanayin da ake ciki: Tun daga 2008, rabon EU na tattalin arzikin duniya ya ragu.Ko da yake Amurka ta murmure daga Babban koma bayan tattalin arziki da sauri, tattalin arzikin Turai ya yi gwagwarmaya sosai.Wasu daga cikinsu sun ɗauki shekaru don yin girma kawai zuwa matakan pre-rikici.A halin da ake ciki, tattalin arzikin Asiya yana ci gaba da samun bunkasuwa bisa manyan tsare-tsare, bisa jagorancin babban tattalin arzikin kasar Sin.

Tsakanin shekarar 2009 zuwa 2020, yawan karuwar GDP na EU a shekara ya kai kashi 0.48 kawai, a cewar bankin duniya.Yawan ci gaban Amurka a tsawon lokaci guda ya kusan ninka sau uku, wanda ya kai kashi 1.38 a kowace shekara.Kuma kasar Sin ta karu da kashi 7.36 bisa dari a kowace shekara a daidai wannan lokacin.Sakamakon da aka samu shi ne, yayin da kaso na EU na GDP na duniya ya fi na Amurka da Sin a shekarar 2009, yanzu shi ne mafi karanci daga cikin ukun.

A baya-bayan nan kamar 2005, EU ta kai kusan kashi 20 na GDP na duniya.Zai lissafta rabin wannan adadin a farkon 2030s idan tattalin arzikin EU ya ragu da kashi 3 cikin 2023 da 2024 sannan kuma ya dawo da saurin ci gaban cutar da ya kai kashi 0.5 a kowace shekara yayin da sauran kasashen duniya ke karuwa da kashi 3 (3%). matsakaicin matsakaicin duniya kafin annoba).Idan lokacin sanyi na 2023 ya yi sanyi kuma koma bayan tattalin arziki mai zuwa ya nuna yana da tsanani, rabon Turai na GDP na duniya zai iya faduwa cikin sauri.

Mafi muni kuma shi ne, Turai na baya bayan sauran kasashe a fannin karfin soja.Kasashen Turai sun yi watsi da kashe kudaden soji tsawon shekaru da dama kuma ba za su iya cika wannan karancin saka hannun jari cikin sauki ba.Duk wani kashe-kashen soja na Turai a yanzu-don ɓata lokacin da ya zo a farashi mai sauƙi ga sauran sassan tattalin arziƙin, mai yuwuwar haifar da ƙarin jawa kan ci gaba da tilasta zaɓin raɗaɗi game da rage kashe kuɗi na zamantakewa.

Ana iya cewa lamarin Rasha ya fi na EU girma.Tabbas, kasar har yanzu tana samun makudan kudaden shiga daga sayar da man fetur da iskar gas da take fitarwa, akasari zuwa kasashen Asiya.A cikin dogon lokaci, duk da haka, sashen mai da iskar gas na Rasha zai iya yin koma baya—ko da bayan yakin Ukraine ya zo karshe.Sauran tattalin arzikin kasar Rasha na kokawa, kuma takunkumin da kasashen Yamma suka kakabawa kasar zai hana bangaren makamashin kasar samun kwarewar fasaha da kudaden zuba jari da take bukata.

Yanzu da Turai ta yi rashin imani ga Rasha a matsayin mai samar da makamashi, dabarun da Rasha kawai za ta iya amfani da ita ita ce ta sayar da makamashinta ga abokan cinikin Asiya.Abin farin ciki, Asiya tana da tattalin arziki masu tasowa da yawa.Abin takaici ga Rasha, kusan dukkanin hanyoyin sadarwarta na bututun mai da kayan aikin makamashi a halin yanzu an gina su don fitarwa zuwa Turai kuma ba za su iya jujjuya gabas cikin sauƙi ba.Zai ɗauki shekaru da biliyoyin daloli kafin Moscow ta sake daidaita yawan makamashin da take fitarwa - kuma da alama za ta iya yin tasiri kan sharuɗɗan kuɗi na Beijing.Dogaro da bangaren makamashi ga kasar Sin mai yiyuwa ne zai iya kaiwa ga mafi girman tsarin siyasa, kawancen da Rasha ta samu kanta tana kara karamin matsayi.Yarjejeniyar da shugaban kasar Rasha Vladimir Putin ya yi a ranar 15 ga watan Satumba cewa takwaransa na kasar Sin Xi Jinping, yana da "tambayoyi da damuwa" game da yakin da ake yi a Ukraine, yana nuni ga bambancin iko da ke tsakanin Beijing da Moscow.

 

Karancin abinci—da tsadar abin da ake da shi—na iya haifar da ƙarin matsala a waɗannan yankuna fiye da makamashi.Yakin da ake yi a Ukraine ya lalata girbi da hanyoyin sufuri na alkama da sauran hatsi.Manyan masu shigo da abinci kamar Masar suna da dalilin fargaba game da tashe-tashen hankulan siyasa waɗanda galibi ke haifar da hauhawar farashin abinci.

Maganar siyasar duniya ita ce, muna tafiya ne zuwa duniyar da Sin da Amurka su ne manyan kasashen duniya biyu.Nisantar da Turai daga harkokin duniya zai cutar da muradun Amurka.Turai - a mafi yawan bangare - dimokuradiyya, jari-hujja, kuma mai himma ga haƙƙin ɗan adam da tsarin ƙasa da ƙasa mai tushen ƙa'idodi.Har ila yau, EU ta jagoranci duniya cikin ƙa'idodin da suka shafi aminci, sirrin bayanai, da muhalli, wanda ya tilastawa kamfanoni da yawa don haɓaka halayensu a duk duniya don dacewa da ƙa'idodin Turai.Rikicin Rasha na iya zama kamar mafi inganci ga muradun Amurka, amma yana da haɗarin cewa Putin (ko magajinsa) zai mayar da martani game da asarar kima da martabar ƙasar ta hanyar zage-zage ta hanyoyi masu ɓarna—wataƙila har ma da bala'i.

Yayin da nahiyar Turai ke fafutukar daidaita tattalin arzikinta, ya kamata Amurka ta tallafa mata idan ya yiwu, gami da fitar da wasu albarkatun makamashinta, kamar LNG.Wannan yana iya zama da sauƙi a faɗi fiye da yi: Har yanzu Amurkawa ba su farka sosai ba game da hauhawar farashin makamashin da suke yi.Farashin iskar gas a Amurka ya ninka sau uku a bana kuma yana iya karuwa yayin da kamfanonin Amurka ke kokarin shiga kasuwannin fitar da kayayyaki na LNG masu fa'ida a Turai da Asiya.Idan farashin makamashi ya kara karuwa, 'yan siyasar Amurka za su fuskanci matsin lamba don takaita fitar da kayayyaki zuwa kasashen waje don adana karfin makamashi a Arewacin Amurka.

Fuskantar ƙarancin Turai, masu tsara manufofin Amurka za su so su haɓaka da'irar abokantaka na tattalin arziki masu ra'ayi iri ɗaya a ƙungiyoyin ƙasa da ƙasa kamar Majalisar Dinkin Duniya, Kungiyar Kasuwanci ta Duniya, da Asusun Ba da Lamuni na Duniya.Wannan na iya nufin babban haɗin gwiwa na manyan iko kamar Indiya, Brazil, da Indonesia.Duk da haka, Turai da alama da wuya a maye gurbinsu.Amurka ta ci gajiyar shekaru da dama daga muradun tattalin arziki da fahimtar juna tsakaninta da nahiyar.Matukar yadda tattalin arzikin Turai ya ragu a yanzu, Amurka za ta fuskanci turjiya mai tsanani ga hangen nesanta na samar da tsarin dimokuradiyya mai fa'ida a duniya.